Chart: Merck's Major CV Trials

Even as many large pharmaceutical companies have dropped their cardiovascular research programs, Merck remains committed to the field, with nearly half a dozen CV compounds in late-stage clinical trials ("The Pink Sheet," Jan. 5, 2009). The company has more than 100,000 patients enrolled in one of the late-stage CV studies, estimates Barclays Capital analyst Tony Butler. On May 11, Merck is hosting an R&D day at its corporate headquarters in Whitehouse, NJ, where CV is likely to be one key area of focus. Butler, using internally developed algorithms, projects that if all the trials fail, Merck's earnings will be flat through 2015, while full success could result in a 40 percent boost, raising current earnings per share from $3.37 in 2009 to $4.73 in 2015. 2010 is a critical year for the franchise, which has been battered by genericization of the best-selling antihypertensive Cozaar/Hyzaar in 2009 and efficacy issues with the Zetia/Vytorin franchise, he notes.