From Trial Populations To Pricing: How Some Of The COVID-19 Vaccines Compare
Executive Summary
With Phase III underway, Pfizer and Moderna’s clinical approaches and government contracting strategies are coming into focus.
Now that Pfizer Inc. and Moderna, Inc. have launched Phase III programs for their COVID-19 vaccine candidates, industry and policy makers can start to envision what a world with an inoculation might look like, even as plenty of questions remain.
A US House hearing held a week before the trail announcements offered hints as to what the lawmakers will be paying close attention to as the products advance in development, through the regulatory process and potentially to marketing.
The 21 July Energy and Commerce oversight hearing included testimony from five of the sponsors with leading COVID-19 vaccine candidates, but still seemed a bit premature as the lawmakers were largely trying to elicit comments on company decisions that are still being made or could shift based on how their products progress or the pandemic changes.
Even so, the questions offer drug companies a warning of the coming scrutiny they could face if they don’t heed lawmakers desires. Democrats will be quick to pounce on any company that prices a vaccine at a rate they deem unfair, while Republicans are pushing for as much manufacturing and materials sourcing to be done in the US, with a particular aversions to companies working with China.
There was also a lot of lawmaker interest in ensuring diverse populations are studied in clinical trials, including children, the elderly and racial and ethnic groups disproportionally suffering from the virus.
And companies were pushed to think about what responsibility they have to fairly guide distribution of what may initially be a very limited and highly coveted resource. (Also see "Instilling Public Trust in COVID Vaccine Allocation Plan: Gov’t Hopes Outside Scientists Will Help" - Pink Sheet, 27 Jul, 2020.)
Lawmakers even expect the industry to be a check on their fear of politicization of FDA – executives were pressed to say they would intervene and warn the American public if the agency was pushing to clear an ineffective or unsafe vaccine.
The week since the hearing has brought some more answers, from the designs of the first two registration trails to pricing aspirations. Pfizer announced a deal with the US government to sell a 100 million doses of its vaccine for $19.50 each. (Also see "Pfizer’s Go-It-Alone Approach Nets $1.95bn COVID Vaccine Order From US Government" - Pink Sheet, 22 Jul, 2020.)
Moderna is seeking a higher price, $25-30 per dose, according to a report in the Financial Times. That could be a challenging ask, not only because of Pfizer’s benchmark, but because Moderna has received considerable federal investments to develop its candidate while Pfizer received none.
Pfizer’s pricing strategy reflects perhaps both first mover advantage but also big mover advantage. The behemoth can afford to make a modest profit off a coronavirus vaccine, while Moderna is likely hoping for a homerun from what would be its first-ever product.
More company strategies and contingencies are likely to be revealed as data come in and purchasing decisions are made. Here’s a slideshow look at what executives from AstraZeneca PLC, Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Moderna and Pfizer have said about some of the key questions about their potential vaccines.