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GENENTECH's ACTIVASE 1988 SALES TO REACH $150 MIL.

Executive Summary

GENENTECH's ACTIVASE 1988 SALES TO REACH $150 MIL., company President Kirk Raab predicted in a presentation to financial analysts Dec. 12. The Genentech exec's estimate falls below earlier company predictions. As recently as October, the biotech firm estimated that it captured 65% of the 120,000 U.S. patient market which, at a current price of $2,300 per dose, would translate into annual sales of $180 mil. The earlier Activase sales projections were based on expectations of a much larger thrombolytic market. The biotech firm said it expects to take a one-time, fourth quarter charge of $25 mil. due to TPA overstocking, and to book a three-month net loss of $16-18 mil., based on an estimated net earnings of 23-26¢ per share for 1988 and 78.7 mil. shares outstanding. In October the California-based biotech firm halted TPA production for the remainder of 1988. During the first half of 1988, Genentech manufactured the drug at a rate exceeding market demand to allow for the production of other cell-based products "on a campaign basis," the company said. However, Raab predicted that sales growth will resume in 1989, resulting in sales of $180-190 mil. "We anticipate that 1989 Activase sales will increase 20 to 25% over this year's," he stated. Overall, Raab anticipates total 12-month revenues to reach $330 mil., up 40% from 1987, and net earnings for 1988 to be $18-20 mil. Fourth quarter revenues work out to about $85 mil. Sales of Genentech's human growth hormone Protropin are expected to hit $110 mil. in 1988. In the coming year, the company will direct its resources into two divisions: marketing and sales, and research and development. "The company will expand its hospital-based sales force and will continue educational programs...[on] thrombolytic therapy and the use of Activase," a Dec. 12 press release states. "Continued strong investment in research and development," the release continues, "will reflect the impact of a number of new products entering human clinical trials."
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