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Approvals And Up-Fronts: Our Methodology

Executive Summary

In the first part of a new series, we took the data used to produce our 2014 study and reviewed the actual outcomes of the deals in terms of the current development status of the partnered programs to see how they matched up against BioMedTracker's likelihood of approval (LOA) predictions.

We re-evaluated the partnerships – approximately 394 during 2003 to 2011 – from the original dataset in Informa's Strategic Transactions, including deals for Phase I to III candidates across seven therapeutic areas – cancer, cardiology, immune, infectious, metabolic, neurology, and respiratory. Deals included were restricted to those with a disclosed up-front value of at least $1 million.

Approximately 119 deals out of the 394 had been terminated but were included in the analysis. Of the 119, 22 deals produced an approved drug, post deal-termination.

The drugs that were included were the ones that were part of the original deal terms and associated with that up-front payment.

To determine the current phase of the drug, we used Informa's BioMedTracker, Medtrack, or PharmaProjects.

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